Observed market move−9 pts
45%→36%
Measured over 1h · Holding at the new level.
Down 9 pts to 36%.
Measured over 1h · Holding at the new level.
Credibility: medium (0.68) · Source Before Move — not confirmed causal
Signal Kosmos read
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.99… moved from 45% to 36%. Likely catalyst: TASS.
Provenance
| Age | Type | Source | Detail | Price move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? | 45% → 36% |
| 15d | News article | TASSexternal | Price of Brent oil surpasses $85 per barrel on London’s ICE first since August 4 | — |
| 15d | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? | 31% → 40% |
| 15d | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? | 42% → 31% |
| 15d | Milestone | system | Signal created | — |
3 of 4 rows are the market re-reporting its own price ticks (highlighted rows are independent external sources) — matches counts.non_market_sources: 1.