Regulation and enforcement
Regulation75% confidence• Our businesses are subject to extensive governmental regulation, which could reduce our profitability, limit our growth, or subject us to legal and regulatory actions
$356.59
$1.06 (+0.30%)
Last quote Jul 10, 7:59 PM
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AON's prediction-market exposure set spans Foreign exchange, Interest rates, Weather & catastrophe, and Recession / demand cycle. Coverage: 2 filing-backed (SEC) and 3 broader macro/sector context.
Event exposure
2 documented filing links; 3 company, sector or macro context links. Relationship tier and confidence are shown on every row.
| Market | Relationship | Probability | Quote | Activity | State | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Documented exposure AON (Insurance Brokers) discloses SEC-backed foreign exchange exposure: "7 billion in 2024, reflecting 6% organic revenue growth, acquired revenues from NFP, and a favorable impact from foreign currency translatio"; the impact can be mixed or context-dependent. Connection details7 billion in 2024, reflecting 6% organic revenue growth, acquired revenues from NFP, and a favorable impact from foreign currency translation Source receipt | 3% 97% NO 24H 2–3% | Bid 1¢ Ask 4¢ Spread 3.2 pts | $0.00 24H $687.4 total $203.28 liquidity | Open Closes Dec 31 | 83% accepted | |
![]() Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting? polymarket · finance | Rates AON (Insurance Brokers): included because this issuer's sector is structurally sensitive to rates, funding costs, credit, or capital allocation. Connection details | — | — Ask 0¢ Spread 0.1 pts | $42.4K 24H $87.2K total | Open Closes Dec 9 | 84% accepted |
| Hurricanes Weather AON (Insurance Brokers): included because weather and hurricane outcomes can affect claims, power reliability, travel, facilities, or regional operations. Connection details | 4% 96% NO 24H 3–4% | Bid 3¢ Ask 4¢ Spread 1.0 pts | $1.6K 24H $2.7K total $2.6K OI | Open Closes Dec 1 | 80% accepted | |
| Documented exposure AON (Insurance Brokers) discloses SEC-backed foreign exchange exposure: "7 billion in 2024, reflecting 6% organic revenue growth, acquired revenues from NFP, and a favorable impact from foreign currency translatio"; the impact can be mixed or context-dependent. Connection details7 billion in 2024, reflecting 6% organic revenue growth, acquired revenues from NFP, and a favorable impact from foreign currency translation Source receipt | 30% 70% NO | Bid 12¢ Ask 30¢ Spread 18.0 pts | $0.00 24H $30.4K total $7.2K OI | Open Closes Dec 31 | 83% accepted | |
![]() US recession by end of 2026? polymarket · finance | Recession AON (Insurance Brokers): a downturn raises credit losses and depresses lending, deal, and fee activity Connection details | 11% 90% NO | Bid 10¢ Ask 11¢ Spread 1.0 pts | $176.95 24H $1.7M total $25.9K liquidity | Open Closes Jan 31 | 78% accepted |
Operating risk graph
Kosmos extracts named operating factors from supported company filings. Expand a factor to inspect every returned receipt and its original source.
Factors
16
Mixed
57
Directional
9
• Our businesses are subject to extensive governmental regulation, which could reduce our profitability, limit our growth, or subject us to legal and regulatory actions
was 1% in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting growth in Retirement, driven by continued demand for advisory work in the UK and EMEA related to the ongoing impact of regulatory change, partially offset by continued soft advisory demand in the U.S. Compensation and Benefits Compensation and benefits expense increased $144 million, or 6%, compared to the prior-year period due primarily to expenses associated with 5% organic revenue growth and investments in long-term growth, as well as the unfavorable impact
6 Licensing and Regulation Our business activities are subject to licensing requirements and extensive regulation under the laws of countries in which we operate, including U
elected not to include a discussion of our consolidated results for 2024 compared to 2023 in this report in reliance upon Instruction 1 to Item 303(b) of Regulation S-K
6 Licensing and Regulation Our business activities are subject to licensing requirements and extensive regulation under the laws of countries in which we operate, including U
elected not to include a discussion of our consolidated results for 2024 compared to 2023 in this report in reliance upon Instruction 1 to Item 303(b) of Regulation S-K
• Our businesses are subject to extensive governmental regulation, which could reduce our profitability, limit our growth, or subject us to legal and regulatory actions
was 1% in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting growth in Retirement, driven by continued demand for advisory work in the UK and EMEA related to the ongoing impact of regulatory change, partially offset by continued soft advisory demand in the U.S. Compensation and Benefits Compensation and benefits expense increased $144 million, or 6%, compared to the prior-year period due primarily to expenses associated with 5% organic revenue growth and investments in long-term growth, as well as the unfavorable impact
in our share price and market capitalization, a significant decline in our expected future cash flows, or a significant adverse change in legal factors or in the business climate, among others. A reporting unit is an operating segment or one level below an operating segment (referred to as a “component”). A component of an operating segment is a reporting unit if the component constitutes a business for which discrete financial information is available and segment management regularly reviews the operating r
results of operations. We are exposed to various risks arising out of natural disasters, including earthquakes, hurricanes, fires, floods, droughts, tornadoes, extreme weather, or other climate events; pandemic health events (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), and human-caused disasters, including acts of terrorism, civil unrest, violence, military actions, and cyber-terrorism (including, but not limited to, ransomware). The continued threat of terrorism and other events or disasters may cause significant volat
to property, casualty, financial and professional lines, construction, transportation, energy, cyber, surety, trade credit, crisis management, transaction liability, and climate. Aon’s Global Risk Consulting and Captive Management teams use quantitative analytics to advise on the trade-offs between risk retention and risk transfer as well as to provide claims consulting and advocacy to ensure optimal financial recovery. Aon’s Affinity business collaborates with sponsored groups and other distribution channe
in our share price and market capitalization, a significant decline in our expected future cash flows, or a significant adverse change in legal factors or in the business climate, among others. A reporting unit is an operating segment or one level below an operating segment (referred to as a “component”). A component of an operating segment is a reporting unit if the component constitutes a business for which discrete financial information is available and segment management regularly reviews the operating r
results of operations. We are exposed to various risks arising out of natural disasters, including earthquakes, hurricanes, fires, floods, droughts, tornadoes, extreme weather, or other climate events; pandemic health events (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), and human-caused disasters, including acts of terrorism, civil unrest, violence, military actions, and cyber-terrorism (including, but not limited to, ransomware). The continued threat of terrorism and other events or disasters may cause significant volat
to property, casualty, financial and professional lines, construction, transportation, energy, cyber, surety, trade credit, crisis management, transaction liability, and climate. Aon’s Global Risk Consulting and Captive Management teams use quantitative analytics to advise on the trade-offs between risk retention and risk transfer as well as to provide claims consulting and advocacy to ensure optimal financial recovery. Aon’s Affinity business collaborates with sponsored groups and other distribution channe
current forecasts. We discount the related cash flow forecasts using the weighted average cost of capital method at the date of evaluation. Preparation of forecasts and selection of the discount rate for use in the DCF model involve significant judgments, and changes in these estimates could affect the estimated fair value of one or more of our reporting units and could result in a goodwill impairment charge in a future period. We also use market multiples which are obtained from quoted prices of comparable com
make better workforce decisions and align their business and people strategies. We support clients across the full employee lifecycle, including talent assessment and selection, compensation benchmarking, total rewards strategy optimization, Corporate Governance and strategic employee communications. We also consult on corporate sustainability matters, supporting a wide range of risk assessment and advisory solutions designed to address and manage corporate sustainability issues and enable our clients to crea
businesses provide advice to clients on: investment strategy, which can include advice on setting investment objectives, asset allocation, and hedging strategies; selection (or removal) of investment managers; the investment in different investment instruments and products; and the selection of other investment service providers such as custodians and transition managers. For some clients, we are responsible for making decisions on these matters and we may implement such decisions in a fiduciary or agen
greater name recognition, more comprehensive products, stronger presence in certain geographies, or more established relationships with their customers and suppliers than we have
greater name recognition, more comprehensive products, stronger presence in certain geographies, or more established relationships with their customers and suppliers than we have
Risks Related to Technology, Cybersecurity, and Data Protection • We rely on complex information technology systems and networks to operate our business
16 1,641 1,470 Accelerating Aon United Program expenses 365 389 135 Total operating expenses 12,837 11,863 9,591 Operating income 4,344 3,835 3,785 Interest income 19 67 31 Interest expense (815) (788) (484) Other income (expense) 1,211 348 (163) Income before income taxes 4,759 3,462 3,169 Income tax expense 1,009 742 541 Net income 3,750 2,720 2,628 Less: Net income attributable to redeemable and nonredeemable noncontrolling interests 55 66 64 Net income attributable to Aon shareholders $ 3,695 $ 2,654 $ 2,564 D
152 199 Other general expense 411 446 Accelerating Aon United Program expenses 92 110 Total operating expenses 3,319 3,268 Operating income 1,715 1,461 Interest income 12 5 Interest expense (179) (206) Other income (expense) 5 (10) Income before income taxes 1,553 1,250 Income tax expense 314 268 Net income 1,239 982 Less: Net income attributable to redeemable and nonredeemable noncontrolling interests 27 17 Net income attributable to Aon shareholders $ 1,212 $ 965 Diluted net income per share attributable to Aon
including financial covenants that require us to maintain specified ratios of adjusted consolidated EBITDA to consolidated interest expense and consolidated debt to adjusted consolidated EBITDA, tested quarterly
Interest rates are determined by local market conditions and vary by currency
Interest rates are determined by local market conditions and vary by currency
• The profitability of our operations may not meet our expectations due to unexpected costs, cost overruns, inflation, early contract terminations, unrealized assumptions used in our contract bidding process or the inability to maintain our prices
Similarly, changes in interest rates and deterioration of credit quality could reduce the value of our cash balances and investment portfolios and adversely affect our financial condition or results
Similarly, changes in interest rates and deterioration of credit quality could reduce the value of our cash balances and investment portfolios and adversely affect our financial condition or results
Interest rates are determined by local market conditions and vary by currency
Interest rates are determined by local market conditions and vary by currency
model to deliver additional insight, connectivity and efficiency. Financial Results The following is a summary of our first quarter of 2026 financial results. • Revenue increased $305 million, or 6%, reflecting 5% organic revenue growth and a 4% favorable impact from foreign currency translation, partially offset by a 3% unfavorable impact primarily from divestitures largely due to the sales of the NFP Wealth business and Stroz Friedberg. ◦ Risk Capital revenue increased $311 million, or 10%, compare
and a united operating model to deliver additional insight, connectivity, and efficiency. Financial Results The following is a summary of our 2025 financial results: • Revenue increased $1.5 billion , or 9% , to $17.2 billion , reflectin g 6% organic revenue growth, driven by net new business and ongoing strong retention and acquired revenues from NFP. Risk Capital revenue increased $773 million, or 7%, to $11.3 billion and Human Capital revenue increased $698 million, or 13% , to $5.9 billion in 2025 compare
customer segments, or geographies. We continue to focus our portfolio on higher-margin, capital-light professional services businesses that have high recurring revenue streams and strong cash flow generation. We endeavor to make capital allocation decisions in order to maximize value for Aon and its shareholders. BUSINESS SEGMENTS We manage our business within two reportable segments: Risk Capital and Human Capital. In 2025, our consolidated Total revenue was $17,181 million. This includes $11,290 mil
9 • If our clients are not satisfied with our services, we may face additional cost, loss of profit opportunities, damage to our reputation, or legal liability. • Revenues from commission arrangements may fluctuate due to many factors, including cyclical or permanent changes in the insurance and reinsurance markets outside of our control. • The profitability of our operations may not meet our expectations due to unexpected costs, cost overruns, inflation, early contract terminations, unrealized assumpt
model to deliver additional insight, connectivity and efficiency. Financial Results The following is a summary of our first quarter of 2026 financial results. • Revenue increased $305 million, or 6%, reflecting 5% organic revenue growth and a 4% favorable impact from foreign currency translation, partially offset by a 3% unfavorable impact primarily from divestitures largely due to the sales of the NFP Wealth business and Stroz Friedberg. ◦ Risk Capital revenue increased $311 million, or 10%, compare
and a united operating model to deliver additional insight, connectivity, and efficiency. Financial Results The following is a summary of our 2025 financial results: • Revenue increased $1.5 billion , or 9% , to $17.2 billion , reflectin g 6% organic revenue growth, driven by net new business and ongoing strong retention and acquired revenues from NFP. Risk Capital revenue increased $773 million, or 7%, to $11.3 billion and Human Capital revenue increased $698 million, or 13% , to $5.9 billion in 2025 compare
9 • If our clients are not satisfied with our services, we may face additional cost, loss of profit opportunities, damage to our reputation, or legal liability. • Revenues from commission arrangements may fluctuate due to many factors, including cyclical or permanent changes in the insurance and reinsurance markets outside of our control. • The profitability of our operations may not meet our expectations due to unexpected costs, cost overruns, inflation, early contract terminations, unrealized assumpt
customer segments, or geographies. We continue to focus our portfolio on higher-margin, capital-light professional services businesses that have high recurring revenue streams and strong cash flow generation. We endeavor to make capital allocation decisions in order to maximize value for Aon and its shareholders. BUSINESS SEGMENTS We manage our business within two reportable segments: Risk Capital and Human Capital. In 2025, our consolidated Total revenue was $17,181 million. This includes $11,290 mil
Aon United Program expenses decreased $18 million, or 16%, in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the prior-year period, due primarily to lower costs related to workforce optimization. Total Operating Expenses and Operating Income Total operating expenses increased $51 million, or 2%, in the first quarter of 2026 due primarily to the increase in expense associated with 5% organic revenue growth and investments in long-term growth, as well as the unfavorable impact of foreign currency translation, parti
$365 million in 2025 compared to $389 million in 2024, reflecting restructuring charges associated with the AAU Program announced in the third quarter of 2023, relating to workforce optimization, technology and other costs, and asset impairments. Total Operating Expenses and Operating Income Total operating expenses increased $1.0 billion, or 8%, to $12.8 billion in 2025, due primarily to the inclusion of NFP’s operating expenses and an increase in expenses associated with 6% organic revenue growth, partially o
talent, to obtain third party services at favorable prices, and to manage key suppliers to maximize delivery; product and efficiency opportunities; inflation (including wage inflation); and the need to devote time and resources to training and professional and business development. 13 Financial Risks We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates that could negatively impact our financial results and cash flows. We face exposure to adverse movements in exchange rates of currencies other than our rep
and brokerage develops and implements innovative, customized health and benefits strategies for our clients to manage risk, drive engagement, and strengthen their workforce through improved health and wellbeing. We partner with insurers and other strategic partners to develop and implement new and innovative solutions and leverage world-class analytics and technology to help clients make informed decisions and manage healthcare outcomes. Consulting and brokerage also advises multinational companies on gl
and brokerage develops and implements innovative, customized health and benefits strategies for our clients to manage risk, drive engagement, and strengthen their workforce through improved health and wellbeing. We partner with insurers and other strategic partners to develop and implement new and innovative solutions and leverage world-class analytics and technology to help clients make informed decisions and manage healthcare outcomes. Consulting and brokerage also advises multinational companies on gl
talent, to obtain third party services at favorable prices, and to manage key suppliers to maximize delivery; product and efficiency opportunities; inflation (including wage inflation); and the need to devote time and resources to training and professional and business development. 13 Financial Risks We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates that could negatively impact our financial results and cash flows. We face exposure to adverse movements in exchange rates of currencies other than our rep
$365 million in 2025 compared to $389 million in 2024, reflecting restructuring charges associated with the AAU Program announced in the third quarter of 2023, relating to workforce optimization, technology and other costs, and asset impairments. Total Operating Expenses and Operating Income Total operating expenses increased $1.0 billion, or 8%, to $12.8 billion in 2025, due primarily to the inclusion of NFP’s operating expenses and an increase in expenses associated with 6% organic revenue growth, partially o
Aon United Program expenses decreased $18 million, or 16%, in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the prior-year period, due primarily to lower costs related to workforce optimization. Total Operating Expenses and Operating Income Total operating expenses increased $51 million, or 2%, in the first quarter of 2026 due primarily to the increase in expense associated with 5% organic revenue growth and investments in long-term growth, as well as the unfavorable impact of foreign currency translation, parti
• Revenue increased $305 million, or 6%, reflecting 5% organic revenue growth and a 4% favorable impact from foreign currency translation, partially offset by a 3% unfavorable impact primarily from divestitures largely due to the sales of the NFP Wealth business and Stroz Friedberg
7 billion in 2024, reflecting 6% organic revenue growth, acquired revenues from NFP, and a favorable impact from foreign currency translation
Although we use various derivative financial instruments to limit the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, we cannot eliminate such risks, and, as a result, changes in exchange rates may adversely affect our results
Although we use various derivative financial instruments to limit the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, we cannot eliminate such risks, and, as a result, changes in exchange rates may adversely affect our results
7 billion in 2024, reflecting 6% organic revenue growth, acquired revenues from NFP, and a favorable impact from foreign currency translation
• Revenue increased $305 million, or 6%, reflecting 5% organic revenue growth and a 4% favorable impact from foreign currency translation, partially offset by a 3% unfavorable impact primarily from divestitures largely due to the sales of the NFP Wealth business and Stroz Friedberg
• Regulation in the areas of data privacy, data protection, data management, data transfer, data localization, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity could increase our costs and affect or limit our business opportunities
Additionally, in 2025 Aon launched its proprietary Data Center Lifecycle Insurance Program designed to support data center projects from construction through ongoing operations by bringing together traditionally fragmented risk classes into a single coordinated insurance solution
• Regulation in the areas of data privacy, data protection, data management, data transfer, data localization, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity could increase our costs and affect or limit our business opportunities
change, political unrest, actions by governments and central banks, or otherwise) have caused in the past and may in the future cause reductions in technology and discretionary spending by our clients, which may result in reductions in the growth of new business or reductions in existing business. If our clients become financially less stable, enter bankruptcy, liquidate their operations or consolidate, our revenues and collectability of receivables could be adversely affected. The demand for property an
change, political unrest, actions by governments and central banks, or otherwise) have caused in the past and may in the future cause reductions in technology and discretionary spending by our clients, which may result in reductions in the growth of new business or reductions in existing business. If our clients become financially less stable, enter bankruptcy, liquidate their operations or consolidate, our revenues and collectability of receivables could be adversely affected. The demand for property an
Revenue is recorded net of allowances for estimated policy cancellations, which are determined based on an evaluation of historical and current cancellation data. Reimbursements received for out-of-pocket expenses are generally recorded as a component of revenue. Commissions and fees for brokerage services may be invoiced near the effective date of the underlying policy or over the term of the arrangement in installments during the policy period. Reinsurance Solutions includes treaty reinsurance, faculta
it could adversely impact employees, clients and shareholders and the failure to consummate a proposed transaction could result in payment of termination fees and reimbursement of expenses, reputational harm, disputes and litigation and missed opportunities to locate and acquire other businesses. If acquisitions are made, there can be no assurance that we will realize the anticipated benefits of such acquisitions, including, but not limited to, revenue growth, operational efficiencies, or expected synerg
to fluctuations in currency exchange rates that could negatively impact our financial results and cash flows. Similarly, changes in interest rates and deterioration of credit quality could reduce the value of our cash balances and investment portfolios and adversely affect our financial condition or results. • We have debt outstanding that could adversely affect our financial flexibility. In addition, a decline in the credit ratings of our senior debt and commercial paper may adversely affect our borrowing
on behalf of the Company; • disparate tax regimes; • restrictions on the import and export of technologies; and • trade barriers, trade wars, tariffs or trade sanctions
on behalf of the Company; • disparate tax regimes; • restrictions on the import and export of technologies; and • trade barriers, trade wars, tariffs or trade sanctions
to in emerging markets, the possibility we would be subject to undeveloped or evolving legal systems, unstable governments and economies, impacts from geopolitical conflicts, and potential governmental actions affecting the flow of goods, services, currency and particular sectors or entities
to in emerging markets, the possibility we would be subject to undeveloped or evolving legal systems, unstable governments and economies, impacts from geopolitical conflicts, and potential governmental actions affecting the flow of goods, services, currency and particular sectors or entities
and markets these clients serve. Economic downturns, volatility, or uncertainty in the broader economy or in specific markets (including as a result of endemics or pandemics, climate change, political unrest, actions by governments and central banks, or otherwise) have caused in the past and may in the future cause reductions in technology and discretionary spending by our clients, which may result in reductions in the growth of new business or reductions in existing business. If our clients become financ
and markets these clients serve. Economic downturns, volatility, or uncertainty in the broader economy or in specific markets (including as a result of endemics or pandemics, climate change, political unrest, actions by governments and central banks, or otherwise) have caused in the past and may in the future cause reductions in technology and discretionary spending by our clients, which may result in reductions in the growth of new business or reductions in existing business. If our clients become financ
Reported company facts
Latest comparable quarterly, annual or point-in-time values available from company XBRL filings.
Operating margin
34.1%
Matching period Mar 31
Net margin
24.1%
Matching period Mar 31
Free cash flow proxy
$363.0M
Operating cash flow − capex · Mar 31
Cash less long-term debt
−$12.36B
Matching period Mar 31
Revenue growth
+25.9%
Versus prior comparable quarterly
Net income growth
+164.6%
Versus prior comparable quarterly
Revenue
$5.03B
quarterly series · 8 periods
Values are reported company facts, not analyst estimates. Period comparability follows the available XBRL frames and may vary by issuer.
Disclosure timeline
Source documents are available as muted receipts; the derived context remains primary.
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Price history: Kosmos reference feeds. Company facts and filing receipts: SEC EDGAR. Prediction-market relationships: Kosmos issuer graph. Related-market context may include broader sector or macro coverage.