Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Mohammed bin Salman and No probability

Market data

Liquidity, pricing and contract timing

Total volume: $166.9K
24h volume: $12.3K
Liquidity: $42.2K
Yes bid: 1¢
Yes ask: 1¢
Spread: 0¢
24h high: 1%
24h low: 1%
Opened: Jun 12, 2026
Closes: Aug 1, 2026
Status: active
Source updated: Jul 11, 2026

Resolution rules

What must happen for this contract to settle

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market discussion

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Resolution rules

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