Will Bitcoin be below $40000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

Below $40,000.00 and No probability

Market data

Liquidity, pricing and contract timing

Total volume: 758.3K contracts
24h volume: 12.8K contracts
Open interest: 346.5K contracts
Yes bid: 29¢
Yes ask: 30¢
No bid: 70¢
No ask: 71¢
Spread: 1¢
24h high: 33%
24h low: 30%
Opened: Feb 5, 2026
Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Status: active
Source updated: Apr 9, 2026

Resolution rules

What must happen for this contract to settle

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $40000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Market discussion

Public trader commentary linked to this contract

Market data

Resolution rules

Market discussion

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