
Liquidity, pricing and contract timing
What must happen for this contract to settle
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Public trader commentary linked to this contract
The rail will populate once Kosmos has a fresh market move, linked news, or provider context.
Iran’s envoy to China says Beijing to get Hormuz concessions
Iran said special treatment should be awarded to countries that are friendly to the Islamic Republic.
The U.S. and Oman offered Iran the release of a portion of its frozen funds if it agrees not to impose fees on oil tankers passing through the Strait…
The U.S. and Oman offered Iran the release of a portion of its frozen funds if it agrees not to impose fees on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street…
Trump reportedly weighed going back to full-scale war with Iran. Then he looked at the oil math and picked the negotiating table... The Wall Street…
Trump reportedly weighed going back to full-scale war with Iran. Then he looked at the oil math and picked the negotiating table... The Wall Street Journal says the option was…
Ask me anything about Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?— the odds, what’s driving the move, or how it resolves.