When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Before 2030 and No probability

Market data

Liquidity, pricing and contract timing

Total volume: 11.2K contracts
24h volume: 1 contracts
Open interest: 6.5K contracts
Yes bid: 37¢
Yes ask: 40¢
No bid: 60¢
No ask: 63¢
Spread: 3¢
24h high: 40%
24h low: 40%
Opened: Aug 14, 2025
Closes: Jan 1, 2030
Status: active
Source updated: Jun 10, 2026

Resolution rules

What must happen for this contract to settle

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Market discussion

Public trader commentary linked to this contract

Market data

Resolution rules

Market discussion

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