Observed market move−15 pts
92%→77%
Measured over 1h · Holding at the new level.
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Down 15 pts to 77% — after swinging between 21% and 96%.
Measured over 1h · Holding at the new level.
Credibility: medium (0.68) · Source Before Move — not confirmed causal
Kosmos read
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860?'s price swung between 21% and 96% across 6 moves in this window, settling at 77%. That pattern reads as live variance rather than a single catalyst: the 3 independent sources in evidence are timing-correlated only, not confirmed causal.
Provenance
| Age | Type | Source | Detail | Price move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h 47m | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860? | 92% → 77% |
| 4h 7m | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will average **gas prices** be above $3.880? | 80% → 21% |
| 4h 47m | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will average **gas prices** be above $3.880? | 76% → 82% |
| 5h 2m | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860? | 90% → 93% |
| 5h 52m | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860? | 95% → 90% |
| 8h 2m | Market move | marketshockinternal | Market move: Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860? | 96% → 91% |
| 8h 15m | News article | DW (Deutsche Welle)external | US wants Iranian pledge to halt Hormuz attacks — officials | — |
| 15h 11m | News article | Al Jazeeraexternal | Ukrainian attacks cause chaos at fuel stations across Russia | — |
| 23h 24m | News article | TASSexternal | Oil companies keep gas station prices at or below inflation — Deputy PM Novak | — |
| 8h 2m | Milestone | system | Signal created | — |
6 of 9 rows are the market re-reporting its own price ticks (highlighted rows are independent external sources) — matches counts.non_market_sources: 3.