ADI's prediction-market exposure set spans Company KPI, Crude oil, Tariffs & trade policy, Public health, and AI compute demand. Coverage: 3 filing-backed (SEC) and 2 broader macro/sector context.
Event exposure
Related prediction markets
3 documented filing links; 2 company, sector or macro context links. Relationship tier and confidence are shown on every row.
ADI (Semiconductors) discloses SEC-backed energy supply exposure: "in the markets in which we sell our products, including inflationary pressures, which has resulted, and may continue to result, in increased"; a YES outcome may pressure the issuer.
Connection details
in the markets in which we sell our products, including inflationary pressures, which has resulted, and may continue to result, in increased interest rates, fuel prices, wages and other costs
ADI (Semiconductors) discloses SEC-backed tariffs exposure: "announced and future tariffs and other trade restrictions"; the impact can be mixed or context-dependent.
Connection details
announced and future tariffs and other trade restrictions
ADI (Semiconductors) discloses SEC-backed public health exposure: "• natural disasters, public health emergencies or other catastrophic events"; the impact can be mixed or context-dependent.
Connection details
• natural disasters, public health emergencies or other catastrophic events
ADI (Semiconductors): included because AI compute markets can reflect accelerator demand, data-center capacity, and semiconductor economics.
Connection details
30%
70% NO
24H 29–39%
Bid 30¢
Ask 31¢
Spread 1.0 pts
$707.16 24H
$41.8K total
$12.5K OI
Open
Closes Jan 1
83%
accepted
Operating risk graph
Filing-backed exposures
Kosmos extracts named operating factors from supported company filings. Expand a factor to inspect every returned receipt and its original source.
82
Factors
19
Mixed
74
Directional
8
Regulation10 filing receipts72% confidence86% max materialitymixed
RegulationTariffsSemiconductorsFed RatesChina
Regulation and enforcement
Regulation77% confidence
reviewing available funds held by our foreign subsidiaries and the cost effectiveness by which those funds can be accessed in the United States. We do not expect current regulatory restrictions or taxes on repatriation to have a material adverse effect on our overall liquidity, financial condition or results of operations. Our cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments consist of highly liquid investments, including money market funds and corporate and bank obligations. We maintain these balances with co
Sale of up to 3,000 shares None of our officers or directors adopted or terminated a non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement (as defined in Item 408(c) of Regulation S-K) during the second quarter of fiscal 2026
• compliance requirements of customs and export regulations, including the Export Administration Regulations and the International Traffic and Arms Regulations
• compliance requirements of customs and export regulations, including the Export Administration Regulations and the International Traffic and Arms Regulations
reviewing available funds held by our foreign subsidiaries and the cost effectiveness by which those funds can be accessed in the United States. We do not expect current regulatory restrictions or taxes on repatriation to have a material adverse effect on our overall liquidity, financial condition or results of operations. Our cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments consist of highly liquid investments, including money market funds and corporate and bank obligations. We maintain these balances with co
Sale of up to 3,000 shares None of our officers or directors adopted or terminated a non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement (as defined in Item 408(c) of Regulation S-K) during the second quarter of fiscal 2026
Ai Compute Demand8 filing receipts61% confidence86% max materialitymixed
AiData Center
Generic AI use
Generic Ai Use44% confidence
the increase in the Communications end market was primarily driven by growth in the wireline sub-market from data center infrastructure expansion in support of AI applications
Risks Related to Cyber, Artificial Intelligence, Intellectual Property, Legal and Regulatory Our computer systems and networks are subject to attempted security breaches and other cyber incidents and a significant disruption in, or breach in security of, our information technology sy
Risks Related to Cyber, Artificial Intelligence, Intellectual Property, Legal and Regulatory Our computer systems and networks are subject to attempted security breaches and other cyber incidents and a significant disruption in, or breach in security of, our information technology sy
the increase in the Communications end market was primarily driven by growth in the wireline sub-market from data center infrastructure expansion in support of AI applications
Company Kpi8 filing receipts63% confidence86% max materialitymixed
Company Kpi
Company operating metrics
Company Kpi63% confidence
significant operations and manufacturing facilities outside the United States, including in Ireland, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. A significant portion of our revenue is derived from customers in international markets, and we expect that international sales will continue to account for a significant portion of our revenue in the future. As a result of our international operations, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be negatively impacted by, among others, the following
In addition, certain distributors are allowed to return unsold products if we terminate the relationship with the distributor. Additional information relating to our revenue and customer concentration is set forth in Note 2l, Concentrations of Risk ; Note 2n, Revenue Recognition ; and Note 4, Industry, Segment and Geographic Information , of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements contained in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. We typically do not have long-term sales contracts with
3, 2024. Therefore, fiscal 2025 includes one less week of operations as compared to fiscal 2024. Results of Operations Overview Fiscal Year 2025 2024 $ Change % Change Revenue $ 11,019,707 $ 9,427,157 $ 1,592,550 17 % Gross margin % 61.5 % 57.1 % Net income $ 2,267,342 $ 1,635,273 $ 632,069 39 % Net income as a % of revenue 20.6 % 17.3 % Diluted EPS $ 4.56 $ 3.28 $ 1.28 39 % Revenue Trends by End Market The following table summarizes revenue by end market. The categorization of revenue by end market is determ
significant operations and manufacturing facilities outside the United States, including in Ireland, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. A significant portion of our revenue is derived from customers in international markets, and we expect that international sales will continue to account for a significant portion of our revenue in the future. As a result of our international operations, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be negatively impacted by, among others, the following
3, 2024. Therefore, fiscal 2025 includes one less week of operations as compared to fiscal 2024. Results of Operations Overview Fiscal Year 2025 2024 $ Change % Change Revenue $ 11,019,707 $ 9,427,157 $ 1,592,550 17 % Gross margin % 61.5 % 57.1 % Net income $ 2,267,342 $ 1,635,273 $ 632,069 39 % Net income as a % of revenue 20.6 % 17.3 % Diluted EPS $ 4.56 $ 3.28 $ 1.28 39 % Revenue Trends by End Market The following table summarizes revenue by end market. The categorization of revenue by end market is determ
In addition, certain distributors are allowed to return unsold products if we terminate the relationship with the distributor. Additional information relating to our revenue and customer concentration is set forth in Note 2l, Concentrations of Risk ; Note 2n, Revenue Recognition ; and Note 4, Industry, Segment and Geographic Information , of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements contained in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. We typically do not have long-term sales contracts with
Our analog and mixed-signal IC technology have been the foundation of our business for six decades, and we are one of the world’s largest suppliers of high-performance analog ICs
States and Europe or China, tensions across the Taiwan Strait that may adversely affect our operations in Taiwan, our customers and the technology industry supply chain, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in Israel and the Middle East
Our analog and mixed-signal IC technology have been the foundation of our business for six decades, and we are one of the world’s largest suppliers of high-performance analog ICs
States and Europe or China, tensions across the Taiwan Strait that may adversely affect our operations in Taiwan, our customers and the technology industry supply chain, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in Israel and the Middle East
basis by cyclicality in the semiconductor industry. We believe that a number of factors should be used to assess future customer demand, including backlog, macroeconomic trends, customer insights and current customer bookings as compared to billings (book-to-bill) ratio. We define backlog to mean firm orders from a customer or distributor with a requested delivery date within thirteen weeks. However, backlog may be 7 impacted by the tendency of customers to rely on shorter lead times available fro
Labor Market4 filing receipts74% confidence86% max materialitynegative
LaborWagesFuel CostsFed Rates
Labor costs and availability
Labor Cost80% confidence
in the markets in which we sell our products, including inflationary pressures, which has resulted, and may continue to result, in increased interest rates, fuel prices, wages and other costs; • changes in customer demand or order patterns for our products or for end products that incorporate our products; • the timing, delay, reduction or cancellation of significant customer orders and our ability to manage inventory; • our ability to accurately forecast distributor demand for our products; • future di
potential. Core to our empowerment strategy is building a culture of inclusion across the organization. We are working to achieve this by expanding the diversity of our workforce, creating growth and development opportunities for our employees, embracing different perspectives and fostering an inclusive work environment for all. In addition, we encourage employees to develop different networks open to all employees, which contribute to our broader diversity and inclusion initiatives. Our current employee netwo
in the markets in which we sell our products, including inflationary pressures, which has resulted, and may continue to result, in increased interest rates, fuel prices, wages and other costs; • changes in customer demand or order patterns for our products or for end products that incorporate our products; • the timing, delay, reduction or cancellation of significant customer orders and our ability to manage inventory; • our ability to accurately forecast distributor demand for our products; • future di
potential. Core to our empowerment strategy is building a culture of inclusion across the organization. We are working to achieve this by expanding the diversity of our workforce, creating growth and development opportunities for our employees, embracing different perspectives and fostering an inclusive work environment for all. In addition, we encourage employees to develop different networks open to all employees, which contribute to our broader diversity and inclusion initiatives. Our current employee netwo
• trade policy, commercial, travel, export or taxation disputes or restrictions, import, export or sector-based tariffs, changes to export classifications or other restrictions imposed by the U
• trade policy, commercial, travel, export or taxation disputes or restrictions, import, export or sector-based tariffs, changes to export classifications or other restrictions imposed by the U
intellectual property, tax, trade, including import, export and customs, antitrust, environment, health and safety, employment, immigration and travel, cybersecurity, privacy, data protection and localization and anti-corruption
key personnel; risks related to acquisitions or other strategic transactions; unanticipated difficulties or expenditures relating to integrating acquired businesses; security breaches or other cyber incidents; risks related to the use of artificial intelligence in our business operations, products and services; adverse results in litigation; the outcome of any regulatory actions, including governmental inquiries, investigations or enforcement proceedings in the event of noncompliance or alleged noncomplianc
by China’s continuously evolving policies, laws and regulations, including those relating to imports and exports, rare earth materials, antitrust, AI, cybersecurity, data protection and data privacy, the environment, indigenous innovation, the promotion of a domestic semiconductor industry, intellectual property rights and enforcement and protection of those rights
Energy Supply2 filing receipts87% confidence86% max materialitynegative / mixed
Jet FuelFuel CostsCrude OilFed Rates
Jet fuel and fuel costs
Jet Fuel Cost90% confidence
in the markets in which we sell our products, including inflationary pressures, which has resulted, and may continue to result, in increased interest rates, fuel prices, wages and other costs
in the markets in which we sell our products, including inflationary pressures, which has resulted, and may continue to result, in increased interest rates, fuel prices, wages and other costs
Metals Prices1 filing receipt82% confidence86% max materialitymixed
MetalsCopperGoldSemiconductorsTariffs
Industrial and precious metals prices
Metals Price82% confidence
result in additional tariffs and trade restrictions that may adversely impact our business. Similar investigations on other industries or products, including automotive, copper, steel, aluminum, critical minerals and aircraft, may also adversely impact the semiconductor industry and our business. These changes have, and similar changes in the future may continue to, increase the cost or reduce the availability of raw materials and supplies we need to operate, cause customers to advance, delay, reduce, or cancel
Consumer Demand8 filing receipts75% confidence78% max materialitymixed
Consumer Demand
Consumer demand
Consumer Demand80% confidence
ended May 2, 2026 as compared to the same periods of the prior fiscal year, primarily due to higher utilization of our manufacturing fixed costs as a result of increased customer demand and favorable mix of products sold into our end markets. Research and Development (R&D) Three Months Ended Six Months Ended May 2, 2026 May 3, 2025 $ Change % Change May 2, 2026 May 3, 2025 $ Change % Change R&D expenses $ 509,323 $ 441,837 $ 67,486 15 % $ 976,723 $ 844,729 $ 131,994 16 % R&D expenses as a % of revenue 14 % 17 %
% 57.1 % Gross margin percentage in fiscal 2025 increased by 440 basis points compared to fiscal 2024, primarily due to higher utilization of our factories due to increased customer demand as well as a decrease in amortization expense related to acquired intangible assets. 32 Research and Development (R&D) Fiscal Year 2025 2024 $ Change % Change R&D expenses $ 1,766,001 $ 1,487,863 $ 278,138 19 % R&D expenses as a % of revenue 16 % 16 % R&D expenses increased in fiscal 2025 as compared to fiscal 2024, primarily as
connectivity • Energy optimization Consumer — To address the market demand for state of the art personal and professional entertainment systems and the consumer demand for high quality user interfaces, music, movies and photographs, we have developed analog, digital and mixed-signal and power solutions that meet the rigorous cost and time-to-market requirements of the consumer electronics market
our labor force at one or more of these facilities, may disrupt our operations, delay production, shipments and revenue and result in us being unable to timely satisfy customer demand. As a result, we could forgo revenue opportunities, potentially lose market share and damage our customer relationships, all of which could materially and adversely affect our business, reputation, financial condition and results of operations. Our industry faces challenges associated with products diverted from authorized distr
% 57.1 % Gross margin percentage in fiscal 2025 increased by 440 basis points compared to fiscal 2024, primarily due to higher utilization of our factories due to increased customer demand as well as a decrease in amortization expense related to acquired intangible assets. 32 Research and Development (R&D) Fiscal Year 2025 2024 $ Change % Change R&D expenses $ 1,766,001 $ 1,487,863 $ 278,138 19 % R&D expenses as a % of revenue 16 % 16 % R&D expenses increased in fiscal 2025 as compared to fiscal 2024, primarily as
ended May 2, 2026 as compared to the same periods of the prior fiscal year, primarily due to higher utilization of our manufacturing fixed costs as a result of increased customer demand and favorable mix of products sold into our end markets. Research and Development (R&D) Three Months Ended Six Months Ended May 2, 2026 May 3, 2025 $ Change % Change May 2, 2026 May 3, 2025 $ Change % Change R&D expenses $ 509,323 $ 441,837 $ 67,486 15 % $ 976,723 $ 844,729 $ 131,994 16 % R&D expenses as a % of revenue 14 % 17 %
connectivity • Energy optimization Consumer — To address the market demand for state of the art personal and professional entertainment systems and the consumer demand for high quality user interfaces, music, movies and photographs, we have developed analog, digital and mixed-signal and power solutions that meet the rigorous cost and time-to-market requirements of the consumer electronics market
our labor force at one or more of these facilities, may disrupt our operations, delay production, shipments and revenue and result in us being unable to timely satisfy customer demand. As a result, we could forgo revenue opportunities, potentially lose market share and damage our customer relationships, all of which could materially and adversely affect our business, reputation, financial condition and results of operations. Our industry faces challenges associated with products diverted from authorized distr
We currently source more than half of our wafer requirements annually from third-party wafer fabrication foundries, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and others, and the remainder is sourced internally
With respect to TSMC in particular, tensions across the Taiwan Strait or other geopolitical events could disrupt TSMC’s operations, which would adversely affect our ability to manufacture certain products and as a result, could adversely affect our business and results of operations
in which we do business, such as macroeconomic weakness related to trade and political disputes between the United States and Europe or China, tensions across the Taiwan Strait that may adversely affect our operations in Taiwan, our customers and the technology industry supply chain, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in Israel and the Middle East
0,426 $ 397,719 14 % Rest of North and South America 162,470 62,318 100,152 161 % Europe 2,285,598 2,109,529 176,069 8 % Japan 989,916 1,085,631 (95,715) (9) % China 2,858,286 2,128,840 729,446 34 % Rest of Asia 1,485,292 1,200,413 284,879 24 % Total Revenue $ 11,019,707 $ 9,427,157 $ 1,592,550 17 % _______________________________________ (1) The sum of the individual percentages may not equal the total due to roundi
We currently source more than half of our wafer requirements annually from third-party wafer fabrication foundries, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and others, and the remainder is sourced internally
may impact markets in which we do business, such as macroeconomic weakness related to trade and political disputes between the United States and Europe or China, tensions across the Taiwan Strait that may adversely affect our operations in Taiwan, our customers and the technology industry supply chain, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in Israel and the Middle East
Weather Disruption4 filing receipts69% confidence78% max materialitymixed
WeatherSemiconductors
Weather disruption
Weather Disruption76% confidence
secular trends. We are positioned to capitalize on critical long-term growth trends to drive advancements in digitized factories, mobility and digital healthcare, combat climate change and reliably connect humans and the world. We are well aligned with the key B2B markets driving the increase in data at the Intelligent Edge and will continue to be a critical partner in the collection, creation and communication of our customers’ edge data. In addition, we incorporate AI capabilities across our technologies, b
or changes in existing accounting standards and practices; and • the effects of public health emergencies, civil unrest, natural disasters or other severe weather events, widespread travel disruptions, security risks, terrorist activities, international conflicts and other events beyond our control. In addition, the semiconductor market has historically been cyclical and subject to significant economic upturns and downturns. Our business and certain of the end markets we serve are also subject to
or changes in existing accounting standards and practices; and • the effects of public health emergencies, civil unrest, natural disasters or other severe weather events, widespread travel disruptions, security risks, terrorist activities, international conflicts and other events beyond our control. In addition, the semiconductor market has historically been cyclical and subject to significant economic upturns and downturns. Our business and certain of the end markets we serve are also subject to
secular trends. We are positioned to capitalize on critical long-term growth trends to drive advancements in digitized factories, mobility and digital healthcare, combat climate change and reliably connect humans and the world. We are well aligned with the key B2B markets driving the increase in data at the Intelligent Edge and will continue to be a critical partner in the collection, creation and communication of our customers’ edge data. In addition, we incorporate AI capabilities across our technologies, b
Healthcare Policy2 filing receipts80% confidence78% max materialitymixed
Drug PricingHealthcare Policy
Drug pricing and healthcare policy
Drug Pricing83% confidence
of global business, there are many transactions and calculations where the ultimate tax outcome is uncertain. Some of these uncertainties arise as a consequence of cost reimbursement and royalty arrangements among related entities. Although we believe our estimates are reasonable, no assurance can be given that the final tax outcome of these matters will not be different than that which is reflected in our historical income tax provisions and income tax liabilities. In the event our assumptions are incorrect
in various jurisdictions that determine how much profit has been earned and when it is subject to taxation in that jurisdiction. In the United States, for example, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) imposes a 15% book minimum tax on corporations with three-year average annual adjusted financial statement income exceeding $1 billion. We do not believe that the minimum tax provided by the IRA will materially impact our effective tax rate. Corporate tax reform, anti-base-erosion rules and tax transparency continu
Political Policy2 filing receipts76% confidence78% max materialitymixed
ElectionsPolicy
Elections and political policy
Election Policy77% confidence
field application engineers who aid 4 customers in incorporating our products into their products. In addition, we offer a variety of web-based tools that ease product selection and aid in the design process for our customers. We believe distributors provide a cost-effective means of reaching a broad range of customers while providing efficient logistics services. From time to time, we may add or terminate distributors in specific geographies, or move customers to a direct support or fulfillment model as we de
numbers of engineers and other qualified employees to meet the demands of our customers; • our ability to generate new design opportunities and win competitive bid selection processes; • the increasing costs of providing employee benefits worldwide, including health insurance, retirement and pension plan contributions and other retirement benefits; • our ability to utilize our manufacturing facilities at efficient levels; • fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; • litigation-related costs
Auto Demand1 filing receipt84% confidence78% max materialitymixed
EvAuto
Electric vehicle and auto demand
Ev Auto Demand84% confidence
communications standards. Our high-voltage, isolation and precision products are a key part of the systems that are designed for safety, longevity and efficiency in electric vehicles and renewable energy. Beyond electrical testing, our precision and power technology enable analytical instruments for drug or 5 vaccine R&D and manufacturing, food safety and quality and environmental monitoring. Our instrumentation and measurement market includes applications such as: • Automated test equipment • Automoti
Defense Spending1 filing receipt84% confidence78% max materialitymixed
DefenseGovernment
Defense spending and government budgets
Defense Budget84% confidence
changes in the United States, including those related to the current U.S. administration and executive offices of the U.S. government, a decline in the U.S. government defense budget, changes in spending or budgetary priorities, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown or delays in contract awards; • a decline in our backlog; • our ability to recruit, hire, retain and motivate adequate numbers of engineers and other qualified employees to meet the demands of our customers; • our ability to generate new desi
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