Generic macro and inflation risk
Generic Macro Risk44% confidence• the overall economic environment, including rates of growth, trade tensions, and increasing inflationary pressure
APA Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Disclosure source: SEC EDGAR$33.42
$0.1300 (+0.39%)
Last quote Jul 10, 7:59 PM
1D return
+0.39%
1W return
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Price performance
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APA's prediction-market exposure set spans Company KPI, Crude oil, Interest rates, Natural gas, and Foreign exchange. Coverage: 4 filing-backed (SEC) and 1 broader macro/sector context.
Event exposure
4 documented filing links; 1 company, sector or macro context link. Relationship tier and confidence are shown on every row.
| Market | Relationship | Probability | Quote | Activity | State | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Prime Minister of Japan be the first to leave office? kalshi · politics | Company specific APA (Oil & Gas Exploration & Production): included because the market directly references this issuer or its leadership, KPI, transaction, or company-specific event. Connection details | 0% 100% NO | Bid 0¢ Ask 1¢ Spread 0.5 pts | $0.00 24H $11.0K total $7.5K OI | Open Closes Jan 1 | 96% accepted |
![]() Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? polymarket · geopolitics | Documented exposure APA (Oil & Gas Exploration & Production) discloses SEC-backed energy supply exposure: "Escalation of the conflict or a broader regional conflict could further disrupt the production, transportation, and export of crude oil, nat"; the impact can be mixed or context-dependent. Connection detailsEscalation of the conflict or a broader regional conflict could further disrupt the production, transportation, and export of crude oil, natural gas (including liquefied natural gas), and NGLs, including through additional damage to or targeting of energy infrastructure, pipelines, refineries, export terminals, and related facilities Source receipt | 100% 0% NO | Bid 100¢ Ask 100¢ Spread 0.1 pts | $9.2M 24H $58.5M total | Open Closes Dec 31 | 86% accepted |
Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair? kalshi · politics | Documented exposure APA (Oil & Gas Exploration & Production) discloses SEC-backed inflation expectations exposure: "44 Capital and Operational Outlook The Company continues to prudently manage its capital program against a volatile price environment and th"; the impact can be mixed or context-dependent. Connection details44 Capital and Operational Outlook The Company continues to prudently manage its capital program against a volatile price environment and the effects of global inflation and rising interest rates Source receipt | 1% 99% NO | — | $6.9M 24H $110.9M total | Open Closes Jan 20 | 86% accepted |
| Documented exposure APA (Oil & Gas Exploration & Production) discloses SEC-backed natural gas exposure: "Escalation of the conflict or a broader regional conflict could further disrupt the production, transportation, and export of crude oil, nat"; the impact can be mixed or context-dependent. Connection detailsEscalation of the conflict or a broader regional conflict could further disrupt the production, transportation, and export of crude oil, natural gas (including liquefied natural gas), and NGLs, including through additional damage to or targeting of energy infrastructure, pipelines, refineries, export terminals, and related facilities Source receipt | 97% 3% NO | Bid 99¢ Ask 100¢ Spread 1.0 pts | $436.67 24H $11.4K total $10.0K OI | Open Closes Jan 1 | 84% accepted | |
| Documented exposure APA (Oil & Gas Exploration & Production) discloses SEC-backed foreign exchange exposure: "Similarly, to the extent the Company enters into derivative contracts to manage exposure to interest rate or foreign exchange risk or enters"; the impact can be mixed or context-dependent. Connection detailsSimilarly, to the extent the Company enters into derivative contracts to manage exposure to interest rate or foreign exchange risk or enters into contracts priced in a foreign currency, it may be limited in its ability to benefit from favorable movements in interest rates or currency exchange rates or may incur additional expense converting to a foreign currency to f Source receipt | 3% 97% NO 24H 2–3% | Bid 1¢ Ask 4¢ Spread 3.2 pts | $0.00 24H $687.4 total $203.28 liquidity | Open Closes Dec 31 | 83% accepted |
Operating risk graph
Kosmos extracts named operating factors from supported company filings. Expand a factor to inspect every returned receipt and its original source.
Factors
17
Mixed
78
Directional
3
• the overall economic environment, including rates of growth, trade tensions, and increasing inflationary pressure
For the Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 2025 (In millions) Interest expense $ 70 $ 91 Amortization of debt issuance costs 1 2 Capitalized interest (14) (4) Gain on extinguishment of debt — (142) Interest income — (4) Total Financing costs, net $ 57 $ (57) Net financing costs increased $114 million from the first quarter of 2025, primarily the result of gai
For the Year Ended December 31, 2025 2024 2023 (In millions) Interest expense $ 323 $ 402 $ 351 Amortization of debt issuance costs 7 6 4 Capitalized interest (45) (29) (24) Gain on extinguishment of debt (147) — (9) Interest income (25) (12) (10) Total Financing costs, net $ 113 $ 367 $ 312 Net financing costs during 2025 decreased $254 million compared to 2024, prim
The Company’s commodity price and other risk management and trading activities, including interest rate and foreign exchange hedging, and contracts priced in foreign currencies may prevent it from benefiting fully from price increases and market movements and may expose it to other risks
These uncertainties include the impacts of ongoing international conflicts, inflation, current and potential tariffs or other trade barriers, global trade policies and disputes, and actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing nations, including OPEC+
The current elevated commodity price environment may increase input costs and contribute to broader inflationary pressures, including from the Company’s suppliers and contractors, and may reduce demand for the products the Company produces
Operational Outlook The Company continues to prudently manage its capital program against a volatile price environment and the effects of global inflation and rising interest rates
These uncertainties include the impacts and duration of armed conflicts involving Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, and Gaza, inflation, current and potential tariffs or other trade barriers, global trade policies, and disputes, and actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing nations, including OPEC+
The current elevated commodity price environment may increase input costs and contribute to broader inflationary pressures, including from the Company’s suppliers and contractors, and may reduce demand for the products the Company produces
The Company’s commodity price and other risk management and trading activities, including interest rate and foreign exchange hedging, and contracts priced in foreign currencies may prevent it from benefiting fully from price increases and market movements and may expose it to other risks
These uncertainties include the impacts and duration of armed conflicts involving Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, and Gaza, inflation, current and potential tariffs or other trade barriers, global trade policies, and disputes, and actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing nations, including OPEC+
Operational Outlook The Company continues to prudently manage its capital program against a volatile price environment and the effects of global inflation and rising interest rates
Public health events, including related workforce availability constraints, travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions, or government-mandated operational limitations, have previously adversely impacted and may from time to time in the future adversely impact the global economy, cause significant volatility in financial markets, and reduce the demand f
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has caused significant uncertainty in global energy and financial markets and disrupted supply chains
Uncertainties in the global supply chain and financial markets impact oil supply and demand and contribute to commodity price volatility
Uncertainties in the global supply chain and financial markets impact oil supply and demand and contribute to commodity price volatility
Uncertainties in the global supply chain and financial markets impact oil supply and demand and contribute to commodity price volatility
Uncertainties in the global supply chain and financial markets impact oil supply and demand and contribute to commodity price volatility
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has caused significant uncertainty in global energy and financial markets and disrupted supply chains
Public health events, including related workforce availability constraints, travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions, or government-mandated operational limitations, have previously adversely impacted and may from time to time in the future adversely impact the global economy, cause significant volatility in financial markets, and reduce the demand f
foreign trade, including trade sanctions and tariffs
These uncertainties include the impacts of ongoing international conflicts, inflation, current and potential tariffs or other trade barriers, global trade policies and disputes, and actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing nations, including OPEC+
include the impacts and duration of armed conflicts involving Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, and Gaza, inflation, current and potential tariffs or other trade barriers, global trade policies, and disputes, and actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing nations, including OPEC+
These uncertainties include the impacts of ongoing international conflicts, inflation, current and potential tariffs or other trade barriers, global trade policies and disputes, and actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing nations, including OPEC+
include the impacts and duration of armed conflicts involving Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, and Gaza, inflation, current and potential tariffs or other trade barriers, global trade policies, and disputes, and actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing nations, including OPEC+
foreign trade, including trade sanctions and tariffs
foreign trade, including trade sanctions and tariffs
The Company expects commodity prices to continue to be volatile in the near term as a result of geopolitical instability and tensions, including in the Middle East, macroeconomic uncertainty, current and potential tariffs or trade barriers, supply chain disruptions, and concerns over a potential economic recession
foreign trade, including trade sanctions and tariffs
The Company expects commodity prices to continue to be volatile in the near term as a result of geopolitical instability and tensions, including in the Middle East, macroeconomic uncertainty, current and potential tariffs or trade barriers, supply chain disruptions, and concerns over a potential economic recession
to incur significant costs in the future to safeguard its assets against terrorist activities. A deterioration of conditions in Egypt or changes in the economic and political environment in Egypt could have an adverse impact on the Company’s business. Deterioration in the political, economic, and social conditions or other relevant policies of the Egyptian government, such as changes in laws or regulations, export restrictions, new or increased taxes, fees, or levies, limitations affecting the repatriati
estimates address accounting matters that are inherently uncertain due to unknown future resolution of such matters. Management routinely discusses the development, selection, and disclosure of each critical accounting estimate. The following is a discussion of the Company’s most critical accounting estimates. Long-Lived Asset Impairments Long-lived assets used in operations, including proved oil and gas properties and GPT assets, are assessed for impairment whenever changes in facts and circumstances ind
See I tem 1C — Cy bers ecurity for additional information regarding the Company’s cybersecurity risk management and governance
Financial Statements set forth in Part IV, Item 15 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. 36 Results of Operations Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Production Revenues The Company’s production revenues and respective contribution to total revenues by country are as follows: For the Year Ended December 31, 2025 2024 2023 $ Value % Contribution $ Value % Contribution $ Value % Contribution ($ in millions) Oil Revenues: United States $ 3,010 52 % $ 3,572 51 % $ 2,241 37 % Egypt (1) 2,177 37 % 2,620 38
for the rest of the year, with realized gas prices increasing through the period. 20 Results of Operations Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Production Revenues Revenue The Company’s production revenues and respective contribution to total revenues by country were as follows: For the Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 2025 $ Value % Contribution $ Value % Contribution ($ in millions) Oil Revenues: United States $ 809 49 % $ 816 51 % Egypt (1) 671 41 % 582 36 % North Sea 164 10 % 202 13 % Total (1)
produces. Conversely, any resolution or de-escalation of the conflict could result in a rapid decline in commodity prices, which may adversely impact the Company’s revenues and operating results. The conflict also heightens the risk of indirect impacts on the Company’s business. State or state-sponsored cyber actors may target energy companies, critical infrastructure, financial institutions, or service providers, which could result in operational disruptions, loss of data, or other adverse effects. Reg
Crude oil, natural gas, and NGL prices and their volatility could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and the price of APA’s common stock. The Company’s revenues, operating results, future rate of growth, and carrying value of its oil and gas properties depend highly upon the prices it receives for its sales of crude oil, natural gas, and NGL products. Historically, the markets for these commodities have been volatile and are likely to continue to be volatile in the future. For example, the NYM
Financial Statements set forth in Part IV, Item 15 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. 36 Results of Operations Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Production Revenues The Company’s production revenues and respective contribution to total revenues by country are as follows: For the Year Ended December 31, 2025 2024 2023 $ Value % Contribution $ Value % Contribution $ Value % Contribution ($ in millions) Oil Revenues: United States $ 3,010 52 % $ 3,572 51 % $ 2,241 37 % Egypt (1) 2,177 37 % 2,620 38
Crude oil, natural gas, and NGL prices and their volatility could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and the price of APA’s common stock. The Company’s revenues, operating results, future rate of growth, and carrying value of its oil and gas properties depend highly upon the prices it receives for its sales of crude oil, natural gas, and NGL products. Historically, the markets for these commodities have been volatile and are likely to continue to be volatile in the future. For example, the NYM
produces. Conversely, any resolution or de-escalation of the conflict could result in a rapid decline in commodity prices, which may adversely impact the Company’s revenues and operating results. The conflict also heightens the risk of indirect impacts on the Company’s business. State or state-sponsored cyber actors may target energy companies, critical infrastructure, financial institutions, or service providers, which could result in operational disruptions, loss of data, or other adverse effects. Reg
for the rest of the year, with realized gas prices increasing through the period. 20 Results of Operations Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Production Revenues Revenue The Company’s production revenues and respective contribution to total revenues by country were as follows: For the Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 2025 $ Value % Contribution $ Value % Contribution ($ in millions) Oil Revenues: United States $ 809 49 % $ 816 51 % Egypt (1) 671 41 % 582 36 % North Sea 164 10 % 202 13 % Total (1)
Escalation of the conflict or a broader regional conflict could further disrupt the production, transportation, and export of crude oil, natural gas (including liquefied natural gas), and NGLs, including through additional damage to or targeting of energy infrastructure, pipelines, refineries, export terminals, and related facilities
RISKS RELATED TO COMMODITY PRICES, DEMAND, AND PRODUCTION Crude oil, natural gas, and NGL prices and their volatility could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and the price of APA’s common stock
Overview APA is an independent energy company that owns subsidiaries that explore for, develop, and produce crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Overview APA is an independent energy company that owns subsidiaries that explore for, develop, and produce crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Overview APA is an independent energy company that owns subsidiaries that explore for, develop, and produce crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Uncertainty surrounding military strikes or a sustained military campaign may affect operations in unpredictable ways, including disruptions of fuel supplies and markets, particularly oil, and the possibility that infrastructure facilities, including pipelines, production facilities, processing plants, and refineries, could be direct targets or indirect casualties of an act of terror or war
Overview APA is an independent energy company that owns subsidiaries that explore for, develop, and produce crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Escalation of the conflict or a broader regional conflict could further disrupt the production, transportation, and export of crude oil, natural gas (including liquefied natural gas), and NGLs, including through additional damage to or targeting of energy infrastructure, pipelines, refineries, export terminals, and related facilities
Escalation of the conflict or a broader regional conflict could further disrupt the production, transportation, and export of crude oil, natural gas (including liquefied natural gas), and NGLs, including through additional damage to or targeting of energy infrastructure, pipelines, refineries, export terminals, and related facilities
RISKS RELATED TO COMMODITY PRICES, DEMAND, AND PRODUCTION Crude oil, natural gas, and NGL prices and their volatility could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and the price of APA’s common stock
Overview APA is an independent energy company that owns subsidiaries that explore for, develop, and produce crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Overview APA is an independent energy company that owns subsidiaries that explore for, develop, and produce crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Overview APA is an independent energy company that owns subsidiaries that explore for, develop, and produce crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Escalation of the conflict or a broader regional conflict could further disrupt the production, transportation, and export of crude oil, natural gas (including liquefied natural gas), and NGLs, including through additional damage to or targeting of energy infrastructure, pipelines, refineries, export terminals, and related facilities
RISKS RELATED TO COMMODITY PRICES, DEMAND, AND PRODUCTION Crude oil, natural gas, and NGL prices and their volatility could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and the price of APA’s common stock
Overview APA is an independent energy company that owns subsidiaries that explore for, develop, and produce crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Department of Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service released proposed regulations relating to the application and implementation of CAMT
• the timing, scope, implementation, and potential judicial review of energy transition and climate-related policies and regulations (such as methane fees, emissions reporting requirements, carbon pricing mechanisms, and other climate-related measures)
adopted or terminated any “Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement” or “non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement” (as such terms are defined in Item 408 of Regulation S-K promulgated under the Securities Act)
• the timing, scope, implementation, and potential judicial review of energy transition and climate-related policies and regulations (such as methane fees, emissions reporting requirements, carbon pricing mechanisms, and other climate-related measures)
Department of Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service released proposed regulations relating to the application and implementation of CAMT
adopted or terminated any “Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement” or “non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement” (as such terms are defined in Item 408 of Regulation S-K promulgated under the Securities Act)
from all potential consequences and damages. Further, the Company does not have coverage in place for a variety of other risks including Gulf of America named windstorm and business interruption. The Company purchases multi-year political risk insurance from highly-rated insurers covering a portion of its investments in Egypt for losses arising from confiscation, nationalization, and expropriation risks. Future insurance coverage for the Company’s industry could increase in cost and may include higher
decreased 5.6 Mb/d to 73.0 Mb/d during the first quarter of 2026 from the comparative prior-year period, primarily a result of increased volume curtailments and weather shut-ins compared with the 2025 period. NGL production was also lower as a result of the sale of non-core assets and operational downtime in the U.S. and natural production decline in the U.S. and North Sea. These decreases were partially offset by drilling activity in the Permian Basin and improved well performance in the North Sea. Pu
those that alter fuel choices; • the availability of pipeline capacity and infrastructure; • the availability of crude oil transportation and refining capacity; • weather conditions; • the impact of political pressure and the influence of environmental groups, investors, and other stakeholders on decisions and policies related to the oil and gas industry, including with respect to environmental, social, and governance matters; • the timing, scope, implementation, and potential judicial review of ener
from all potential consequences and damages. Further, the Company does not have coverage in place for a variety of other risks including Gulf of America named windstorm and business interruption. The Company purchases multi-year political risk insurance from highly-rated insurers covering a portion of its investments in Egypt for losses arising from confiscation, nationalization, and expropriation risks. Future insurance coverage for the Company’s industry could increase in cost and may include higher
decreased 5.6 Mb/d to 73.0 Mb/d during the first quarter of 2026 from the comparative prior-year period, primarily a result of increased volume curtailments and weather shut-ins compared with the 2025 period. NGL production was also lower as a result of the sale of non-core assets and operational downtime in the U.S. and natural production decline in the U.S. and North Sea. These decreases were partially offset by drilling activity in the Permian Basin and improved well performance in the North Sea. Pu
those that alter fuel choices; • the availability of pipeline capacity and infrastructure; • the availability of crude oil transportation and refining capacity; • weather conditions; • the impact of political pressure and the influence of environmental groups, investors, and other stakeholders on decisions and policies related to the oil and gas industry, including with respect to environmental, social, and governance matters; • the timing, scope, implementation, and potential judicial review of ener
Similarly, to the extent the Company enters into derivative contracts to manage exposure to interest rate or foreign exchange risk or enters into contracts priced in a foreign currency, it may be limited in its ability to benefit from favorable movements in interest rates or currency exchange rates or may incur additional expense converting to a foreign currency to f
Regional instability may also affect countries in which the Company operates, including Egypt, by impairing government finances, limiting access to foreign currency, or delaying payments, which could adversely affect the Company’s ability to receive timely payment for production or repatriate funds
Regional instability may also affect countries in which the Company operates, including Egypt, by impairing government finances, limiting access to foreign currency, or delaying payments, which could adversely affect the Company’s ability to receive timely payment for production or repatriate funds
Similarly, to the extent the Company enters into derivative contracts to manage exposure to interest rate or foreign exchange risk or enters into contracts priced in a foreign currency, it may be limited in its ability to benefit from favorable movements in interest rates or currency exchange rates or may incur additional expense converting to a foreign currency to f
Company recorded tax expense of $78 million and $174 million related to the change in tax law in 2025 and 2023, respectively . On August 16, 2022, the U.S. enacted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). The IRA includes a new 15 percent corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) on applicable corporations with an average annual adjusted financial statement income that exceeds $1.0 billion for any three consecutive years preceding the tax year at issue. The CAMT is effective for tax years beginning after Dec
required under the combined impact of the regulations and now expects to cease production at its facilities in the North Sea prior to 2030. Additionally, in the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduced a new 15 percent corporate alternative minimum tax (Corporate AMT) for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2022, on applicable corporations with an average annual adjusted financial statement income (AFSI) that exceeds $1.0 billion for any three consecutive tax years preceding the tax year at is
in current-period earnings, which may introduce earnings volatility even when the underlying exposure is intended to be economically hedged. Public health events, workforce disruptions, or similar global or regional events have previously and may in the future adversely impact the Company’s business, financial condition, and results of operations. Public health events, including related workforce availability constraints, travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions, or government-mandated operational
in current-period earnings, which may introduce earnings volatility even when the underlying exposure is intended to be economically hedged. Public health events, workforce disruptions, or similar global or regional events have previously and may in the future adversely impact the Company’s business, financial condition, and results of operations. Public health events, including related workforce availability constraints, travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions, or government-mandated operational
Public health events, workforce disruptions, or similar global or regional events have previously and may in the future adversely impact the Company’s business, financial condition, and results of operations
Public health events, workforce disruptions, or similar global or regional events have previously and may in the future adversely impact the Company’s business, financial condition, and results of operations
wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, and the development of, and increased demand from consumers and industries for, lower-emission products and services, including electric vehicles and renewable residential and commercial power supplies, as well as more energy-efficient products and services. Further developments could adversely impact the demand for products powered by or manufactured with hydrocarbons and the demand for, and in turn the prices the Company receives for, its crude oil, natural gas, and N
transmission $ 424 $ 432 $ 334 GPT costs decreased $8 million compared to 2024, primarily the result of decreased oil production volumes in the U.S. and lower average transportation rates. 41 Purchased Oil and Gas Costs Purchased oil and gas costs increased $23 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, to $1.1 billion from $1.0 billion in 2024. The increase is primarily driven by gas volumes purchased at higher prices during 2025 compared to the prior-year period coupled with activity associated with the
Reported company facts
Latest comparable quarterly, annual or point-in-time values available from company XBRL filings.
Net income growth
+117.6%
Versus prior comparable quarterly
Operating income
$1.05B
quarterly series · 8 periods
Values are reported company facts, not analyst estimates. Period comparability follows the available XBRL frames and may vary by issuer.
Disclosure timeline
Source documents are available as muted receipts; the derived context remains primary.
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Price history: Kosmos reference feeds. Company facts and filing receipts: SEC EDGAR. Prediction-market relationships: Kosmos issuer graph. Related-market context may include broader sector or macro coverage.