Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

YES and NO probability

Market data

Liquidity, pricing and contract timing

Total volume: $4.4M
24h volume: $10.1K
Liquidity: $112.5K
Yes bid: 6¢
Yes ask: 6¢
Spread: 0¢
24h high: 7%
24h low: 6%
Opened: Jan 9, 2026
Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Status: active
Source updated: Jul 11, 2026

Resolution rules

What must happen for this contract to settle

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

Market discussion

Public trader commentary linked to this contract

Market data

Resolution rules

Market discussion

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